Insights from a real estate perspective: Most of the jobs that have the highest AI exposure are office jobs. Clerks, assistants, secretaries, software developers, bookkeepers, customer service, lawyers, etc. There has been a narrative the past couple years that office real estate was recovering as companies returned to office. If AI job losses materialize, it looks like there may be a second hit to that sector.
Of course there's jobs that don't have a productivity boost from AI. The question is whether across the entire economy there will be a 5% GDP boost.
Teachers, cleaners, and daycare workers may see 0% gains, but don't be surprised if that is made up for by 10% gains the productivity of tech, law, marketing, advertising, manufacturing, government, etc. (okay maybe not government).
How can advertising and marketing become more profitable from this? It's a genuine question, but I don't see how making advertising and marketing easier for everybody and hence flooding the already flooded market would result in increased productivity.
By significantly reducing the cost of creating the advertisements. Want to air a commercial? You no longer have to have actors, sets, designers, costumes, etc. just ask AI to make you a commercial and describe what you want it to look like.
Consider all the labor and capital spent across all the advertising real estate in the world. Commercial, online ads, billboards, labeling. The inputs to make all these things are now greatly reduced. To increase productivity, it doesn't matter that the market is flooded, just that it's much easier to make these things.
Of course they should be, but that's not what will happen. Humans are not rational, so self-driving cars must be significantly safer than human drivers to avoid as much political pushback as possible.
Parking for charging can be done en masse though. For example, waymo could have a single large charging facility somewhere out-of-the-way. Small price to pay in my opinion.
The parking gains are huge though. As adoption increases, parking demand for shopping centers, apartments, workplaces, etc. should all decrease. Say hello to higher density cities. Although I imagine it will take quite a while (decades) for these pressures to have a real effect.
Yeah I imagine it will be many decades. Simply because minimum parking requirements would have to be removed (which is unpopular in a lot of cities), and then redevelopment would need to take place based on demand and investment potential.
