FedEx just posted a terrible quarter and oil just dropped below $50/barrel. To your point, lots of macro indicators [1] flashing red right now that a slowdown is in progressive. I’d bet money (already have technically with SPX puts) that when you look back 6 months from now (the only way to properly asceetain when a recession has started), you’ll see it’s started.
>> The US is doing great. The rest of the world not so much.
These are going to be famous last words. The US is going to be doing horribly over the next decade, precisely because of how "great" the last decade has been. If I borrowed (or pseudo-borrowed a.k.a "printed money" because of reserve currency status) a trillion dollars and enjoyed a commensurate lifestyle, neither my awesome lifestyle nor the fact that there have been a lot of suckers to sponsor it is any indication of what the future will hold.
Soon, US will not be able to borrow any more money and sustain its quality of life. Potential lenders will spurn them: "Why, so you can borrow the money to sponsor your lavish lifestyle, and then turn around and conduct trade wars and actual wars with us? No thank you!"
China will probably do worse, because its greatest borrower, and source of economic prosperity, is going to massively default.
In comparison, this correction will mean the rest of the world is probably going do better, unless they foolishly allow themselves to be dragged into a war which one of these countries will almost certainly start as a last resort to placate any internal discontent.
The US debt load isn't particularly high, the ability to print money isn't directly tied to reserve currency status, and selling US debt doesn't work in the way your comment suggests that it does.
In addition to negative rates, the US gave out money in every way they could, including "helicopter" money - just sending everyone a check. And they did it quickly with immediate impact.
Europe let the crises drag on for years, with questions about whether Greece, Portgual and Ireland would even stay in the euro. 0% now is much too little, far too late.
Wow, you weren't kidding. The Fed dropped the funds rate down to nearly zero by December 2008.[1] It took the European Central Bank until June 2014 to bring their interest rate down to the same level.[2] They even had a couple rate hikes in the interim.
These IPOs are too late.
[1] https://reddit.com/r/investing/comments/a66a1g/_/ebsgrmv/?co...