Nasim Taleb had a good point on the most recent EconTalk [0] about covid: We kinda know what the morality rate is, but we have no idea what the morbidity of covid looks like.
All the co-morbidities are essentially unknown and are likely to stay that way for a while. These side effects take time to suss out; more than the nine months we've had with covid.
With the unknown and potentially unbounded risks we are staring at, Taleb says that over-reaction is the best strategy. He and Russ Roberts go on to talk about the basic issues with statistics in these cases, a good trip back to the first week of any stats course that everyone promptly ignores.
All the co-morbidities are essentially unknown and are likely to stay that way for a while. These side effects take time to suss out; more than the nine months we've had with covid.
With the unknown and potentially unbounded risks we are staring at, Taleb says that over-reaction is the best strategy. He and Russ Roberts go on to talk about the basic issues with statistics in these cases, a good trip back to the first week of any stats course that everyone promptly ignores.
[0] https://www.econtalk.org/nassim-nicholas-taleb-on-the-pandem...