> Surely Russia has no interest in sabotaging the pipelines that give them leverage over Europe.
Does this not give them even more leverage over Europe? There's no longer simply a switch that Russia can flip to resume the flow of gas into Europe and previously only Nordstream 1 was shut down (please correct me if I'm wrong).
It's not so hard to imagine tactics to compel Russia to flip a switch, but repairing these pipelines now will be a massive effort. You could not coerce another country into repairing these, you would have to really work with them.
Additionally this is essentially a real attack on Europe. Winter was looking bad enough as it was, now, depending on the damage, Europe may be forced to go through their hardest winter ever with no option of negotiation.
At the same time by not declaring that this is being done Russia avoids direct retaliation.
I think the message here is that window for "you lift the sanctions, we deliver natural gas" is over. Russia is becoming more desperate, Western powers are used to it being the case that when an adversary become desperate you slowly start getting what you want. I believe the message here is that as Russia gets more desperate, it also gets more dangerous, so be careful your next move.
It's getting cold now, there are internal pressures in many EU countries to fuck this war and sit down with putin and make an agreement so russia can reopen the gas lines. Putin knows that, and probably has a list of conditions ready to reopen them.
If the pipes are destroyed, even if people protest, there's no way to get russian gas again (atleast not fast and cheaply), and no incentive for EU to talk with putin... and the only ones profiteering from this are americans, selling overpriced gas to europe, even worsening the EU-Russia relations and destroying the european economy.
Does this not give them even more leverage over Europe? There's no longer simply a switch that Russia can flip to resume the flow of gas into Europe and previously only Nordstream 1 was shut down (please correct me if I'm wrong).
It's not so hard to imagine tactics to compel Russia to flip a switch, but repairing these pipelines now will be a massive effort. You could not coerce another country into repairing these, you would have to really work with them.
Additionally this is essentially a real attack on Europe. Winter was looking bad enough as it was, now, depending on the damage, Europe may be forced to go through their hardest winter ever with no option of negotiation.
At the same time by not declaring that this is being done Russia avoids direct retaliation.
I think the message here is that window for "you lift the sanctions, we deliver natural gas" is over. Russia is becoming more desperate, Western powers are used to it being the case that when an adversary become desperate you slowly start getting what you want. I believe the message here is that as Russia gets more desperate, it also gets more dangerous, so be careful your next move.