If you are implying that weather forecast is accurate months ahead - nobody knows what the temperatures will be this winter. Everything further ahead than 7 days is pretty much rolling the dice.
You don't need a weather forecast to know that winters are cold in northern part of europe, but that doesn't matter, because with cheap energy we can heat or houses, workplaces, the industry continiues running, and then comes the spring.
With energy prices rising, people won't have money to heat their houses, industry won't be able to produce stuff, people will be left jobless, etc... meaning, a hard winter for europe.
> If you are implying that weather forecast is accurate months ahead
Nop. Hard as in a winter full of hardship, stress and problems.
> Everything further ahead than 7 days is pretty much rolling the dice.
And yet every winter it is cold here and every summer it is hot. Nobody can say which day will be sunny and which day will be stormy that far ahead, but clearly there are trends.
Cold combined with high energy prices will mean that a lot of people will go either cold, or poor or most likely both. Not so cold and so poor that everyone dies instantly, this is not a prequel to snowpiercer, but you know having a bad time.
Winter in Europe has huge variations in severity. The difference between a cold and a mild winter can make an annual 15% difference in gas consumption in Germany, for example [1]. The difference between running out of gas and not running out of gas falls right between those two weather scenarios.
Winter being generally colder than summer - that's climate, which is different from weather.
If you are implying that weather forecast is accurate months ahead - nobody knows what the temperatures will be this winter. Everything further ahead than 7 days is pretty much rolling the dice.
https://scijinks.gov/forecast-reliability/