Well, we're running that experiment right now with soaring meat prices and it looks like you're wrong. Turns out if you make one type of meat more expensive then people just switch to a different kind of meat. If you make all meat more expensive, people buy cheaper cuts and get creative with how they prepare it. My bet is that if you make it prohibitively expensive then people will get creative about sourcing their meat instead so rather than go to the grocery store they'll put in a group order direct from CSA or a small independent meat producer and just store a years supply in a deep freeze.
It turns out a lot of people just prefer eating meat over other options regardless of price. I'm not really surprised.
I think your comment acknowledges that we're not running this experiment. These "fake meat" products are still way more expensive than actual meat. If fake meat actually drops substantially below the cost of meat, we can see what happens, but as you suggest there's really no sign they can compete on price yet.
I do think that if the target market for Beyond really was meat eaters, they've been deluding themselves. Maybe they can shave off a few meat eaters due to the ethical issues, but how many? Ultimately, I have to assume the only way to win many over is on cost, which would have to be a high volume low margin business (if it's even possible to get the prices that low).
I'm not 100% sure it's a product issue and not a market positioning issue. Current gen "new fake meat" veggie brands try to position themselves at premium, which looks like the wrong place to be in. At premium fake meats loose to meat, hands down.
It's like you are trying to position fish sticks on the same slot as fresh salmon.
Huge marketing campaign, target low price segment - that would be the market experiment I would be really interested in.
Maybe. Maybe not. Poor people are pissed off these days and boy that sends the message “we’re taking meat away too now! For a hundred years you knew at least you had meat on the table, but we’re going back to the good ‘ol days of serfdom. Enjoy the slop!”
I have already seen this sentiment among poor people.
Well, it's about marketing and positioning isn't it. Veggie based diets are plausibly healthier due to higher content of fiber - and health is generally considered an admirable trait. So the marketing should not be about selling a cheap offering, but something like Coca-Cola (everyone likes it!) and celebrities enjoying the product and so on. A campaign that draws everyone to the product basically (like cigarettes in olden times). I'm not sure if you can achieve something like that today though. But at least US food industry used to be really great at selling a cheap product to the masses if they put their marketing muscle behind it :)
It turns out a lot of people just prefer eating meat over other options regardless of price. I'm not really surprised.