The third explanation is the only one that makes sense. SF police haven't done their jobs before or after Boudin either. The Tenderloin has had open crime for decades, and that didn't change just because there was a new DA.
They are not mutually exclusive either. It could have been all three. Let me also add that morale is an issue. The police have been taught to value their work in a certain kind of way (chase the bad guy, lock him up, get rewarded), but the world is changing. A lot of these cops feel betrayed by new political positions like "don't arrest for theft," and they legitimately start to wonder what is the point of doing a difficult and dangerous job if they don't have support in their own (I cringe) chain of command? For an external observer it seems like this should not prevent police from e.g. arresting people for murder, but it really has an impact on outcomes.