It’s a good summary but I don’t think the data actually support their conclusion that “While some models projected less warming than we’ve experienced and some projected more, all showed surface temperature increases between 1970 and 2016 that were not too far off from what actually occurred.” +/- 15 % over the last 3 IPCC reports is a lot of missing energy. The models are getting better but I don’t think matching 50 year trends that are essentially linear proves that they are accurate for long term forecasting.
I’d be interested to see a new comparison for this years heatwave. I don’t think models would fare as well.
This doesn't seem historically true. They seem more or less on point with some overshooting and some undershooting: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-m...