In the short term perhaps, but with four months to go I doubt it'll have staying power unless Trump can (miraculously given his personality) avoid any other scandalous story about himself cropping up.
Relatedly, the US election timeframe is ridiculous.
You know, I've changed my opinion since my initial reaction after thinking more. Teddy Roosevelt getting shot in 1912 didn't get him a third term. I'm not sure how much independents and undecided will be swayed.
The election rests on the "undecided voter", which is a person I have a really hard time understanding at this point. So yeah, what effect will this have? Damned if I know.
If a party can’t get its voters to come out - especially reluctant voters, that can make a big difference. If you are a Democrat but aren’t that keen on Biden and you think he’ll win your area anyway, you might lot bother with the half hour trip, and that might swing the election.
The 1912 election was very unusual though – in rather different ways from the current one. It was a three way contest between Wilson (Democratic), Roosevelt (Progressive) and Taft (Republican) – all three of whom won electoral college votes – plus Debs (Socialist), who while he didn't win any electoral college votes, got 6% of the popular vote. I'd be very careful drawing any conclusions from the 1912 election, unless we were dealing with a similar sort of 3/4-way contest – which we aren't, RFK Jr might get 5-6% of the popular vote like Debs did, but no way he's winning anything in the electoral college.
There's three different assassination attempts on major-party candidates in the 70s (Ford twice, Wallace once), none of which propelled them to victory. Situations are quite different, of course.
Ford was never hit so the perception was different. There is no perceived valor or semi-martyrdom without injury. Wallace completely withdrew from the election after the attempt. He wasn't even a candidate in the general election.
He's in an election against an opponent whose party is actively hoping to replace because he's old and senile and no one thinks he's capable of working under pressure.
Trump proved in two minutes that whatever else you can say about him, he's very capable of responding well to pressure.
Unfortunately, the election was absolutely decided today.
> Trump proved in two minutes that whatever else you can say about him, he's very capable of responding well to pressure.
Trump was unable of decisive action between 12noon and 5pm on January 6th, despite being commander in chief of the Army, the National Guard, Air Force, and all the powers that be.
He was so unable of decisive action, it was Mike Pence who eventually made the call to ask for National Guard for help.
4+ hours of inaction. And you call a fist-pumping photo-op to be the thing you care about?
Trump wasn't in the building, Pence was. The president isn't even in charge of capital security due to the separation of powers, that control lies with Congress which handled it miserablely.
Had Trump done what you have suggested here, it could have been easily construed as a coup, the real kind.
The Joint Chiefs had publicly announced 6 months prior during BLM riots that if Trump would issue such an order to the Sec. Def., the generals and staff officers of the COCOM wouldn't execute it. And that was not two weeks before investiture of the new president.
If he'd tried it, that would be a very short lived coup of the real kind.
Okay so just as a refresher, the parent comment I'd replied to was criticizing Trump for not marching the military into the capital to stop a group of unarmed protesters from loitering in the capital building (implying his inaction was suspect). I was pointing out that such an action would be construed as a genuine coup with serious consequences, so with that in mind, what exactly are you getting at here? I'm having trouble keeping track of all the crazy conspiracies surrounding this event.
I don't disagree with you. I merely wanted to add that whatever anybody is saying left or right, it probably wouldn't have worked had he tried an actual coup. From a rational POV I don't really understand all the brouhaha.
Compared to a lot of other situations elsewhere, Jan 6th was a minor spectacle, nothing serious (see Yellow Vests protests in France).
You are making the assumption that there exists such a thing as a rational "homo politicus" as much as economists used to think there was a rational "homo economicus" they could count on.
Really not wanting to defend Trump here - a dictator in the making - but you should be aware of your own biases. Elections are mostly not decided on rational choices _you_ would make based on _your_ perspective and _your_ logic, any of which might have many failings.
So yes, that fist pumping photo is _that_ important and will probably get Trump a 10+ percentage points of vote, and the win, because unless the DNC pulls a rabbit out of their hat, OTOH you have an elderly tired old man with terminal Parkinson's whose own party is trying to get rid of at the last minute.
He was shot in the ear and presumably frazzled and had the presence of mind to recognize an enormous political windfall he could capitalize on rather than just letting the Secret Service usher him away as they clearly wanted to.
Try being shot at, and grazed by a rifle bullet, knowing that you came within a whisper of death from someone armed and specifically hoping to kill you yourself, there with your own blood running down your face, and then still having the presence of mind to stand up and pump your fist in the air. Imagine all this at the age of 78 and with no previous combat experience or with situations where you were being shot at.
No, it would not be easy and far from common to take that in apparent stride so quickly as he did. It was indeed impressive regardless of what you think of Trump the candidate in all other regards. You saying anyone would raise a fist is absurd.
Trump and Biden are judged by different standards. Trump told well over 30 hard core lies at the debate, many blatant lies. Joe got called out on 8 or 9, but they were almost all just slightly off statistics or bad recall, but still “truth” and not blatant gaslighting. What got him were his senior moments.
Trump just secured the election with today. Have you seen those pictures of him with blood on his face and his fist in the air? That shit is going in the history books. If you didn't think all the people who voted for Trump in 2020 and everyone who didn't but wants Biden gone weren't galvanized enough already to vote, they sure as fucking hell are now.
Relatedly, the US election timeframe is ridiculous.