That isn’t the gotcha you think it is. Saying “China is safer than Mississippi” depends entirely on defining safety as low visible street crime and ignoring state power.

China is safer only for people who are compliant, apolitical, unorganized, and unremarkable. For a disadvantaged person, the main risk is not random crime. In China there is no independent court, no reliable legal recourse, no protected media scrutiny, and no guaranteed exit. When something goes wrong, it cannot be challenged.

Mississippi has real and serious problems, but the state is constrained by federal courts, national law, public reporting, and internal mobility. Those constraints materially change the risk profile when abuse occurs.

Low street crime under an unconstrained government is not “safety.” It is conditional calm. Treating that as “safer” than a place with enforceable limits on state power misunderstands what actually puts disadvantaged people at risk.

The US South makes an art form out of institutional racism. Challenging isn't working - issues of poverty, health, education, etc are getting worse, not better. The median wealth of white households is now 10x higher than the median wealth of black households. In 1992, the multiple was 7x. These are issues of life and death, and the hostile state is clearly not that constrained. See what happened to Roe v Wade.

In China however, living standards are quickly catching up to the US. Average life expectancy has already caught up. See here https://data.worldhappiness.report/chart Fit 2 lines on that data and you can extrapolate by ~2030 China will be a better place to live. That's really not that far off. I suspect most of the tier 1 Chinese cities are already on par.

I get what you're saying and actually I don't entirely disagree. But in a lot of very practical ways the US already doesn't have democracy or rule of law.

The key difference isn’t whether abuse happens, it’s what happens after.

In Mississippi, if a local official, police department, or state agency harms you, that action can be challenged outside the state that committed it. Federal courts can overrule Mississippi. National media can report it. NGOs can litigate it. You can leave the state. The same authority that harmed you does not get to decide whether it acted lawfully.

In China, when the state harms you, there is no external forum. Courts answer to the same party that ordered the action. Media cannot investigate it. Lawyers can be punished for challenging it. The authority that harms you also decides whether the harm was lawful, and that decision is final.

“China will be better on average by 2030” is not the same as “safer for minorities.” Tier-1 city averages describe the majority. Minorities face an unconstrained state with no external recourse. That distinction doesn’t show up in a line fit.

That difference is what “constraints” mean in practice. Worsening outcomes in Mississippi don’t erase it. Rising averages in China don’t replace it. It’s why calling China “safer” by pointing to low street crime misses the real source of risk for disadvantaged people.

You’re missing the point. Recourse doesn't matter much if you're bankrupted by health issues because your state blocked Medicaid expansion. If your state fails at education, you can't sue your way into a better life (though to be fair Mississippi has actually improved its schools recently). Institutional constraints don't help much when you're poor, pregnant, and have zero access to Planned Parenthood.

Averages tell enough of the story. Look at the US: In that WHR report we rank in the top 10 for Boomers but way down near 60th for Gen Z. That's what is dragging down the US curve. You can't hit Finland-level numbers without bringing everyone along. China still has a massive hill to climb, but they are determined, let’s see where they are in ten years.

Most Americans are very procedural, which is where I disagree. Personally at the end of the day all I care about is outcomes. I agree with Deng Xiaoping: It doesn't matter if a cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice.