> The result was not, and could never have been, known a priori.
This is a level of solipsism not worth discussing.
Yes, Superman could be a real person and we all had our minds altered to think he’s a superhero.
Yes, when someone pulls the trigger of a gun pointed at someone’s head, it could misfire and explode in their hand.
The point is that someone influencing prediction markets can push this probability to very, very near zero. So much so, as to make the outcome effectively certain for all intents and purposes.
Literally everyone can burn their neighbor's house down! Everyone has access to "valuable predictive information" when that information is being created by the person making the bet.
Get the last word in if you must. We're going in circles.
OK, I see now that you're specifically referring to the case where someone places a bet and then actively goes out and causes the event to happen themselves. I was specifically replying to the people who were saying it was unfair for insiders to profit on the information they already possess.
I agree, I can see how that's a potential edge case, though I don't think it's as likely to happen in practice as you do. Certainly, anybody who commits a crime to cause a payout should be barred from receiving that payout, though you can tell a plausible story where someone manages to conceal it. I also really really doubt that that's what happened in this particular case.
This is a level of solipsism not worth discussing.
Yes, Superman could be a real person and we all had our minds altered to think he’s a superhero.
Yes, when someone pulls the trigger of a gun pointed at someone’s head, it could misfire and explode in their hand.
The point is that someone influencing prediction markets can push this probability to very, very near zero. So much so, as to make the outcome effectively certain for all intents and purposes.