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this is a big deal, markets gonna tank tomorrow morning... and then realize AI is still a thing and recover




Or realize it means interest rates are sure to be dropping.

and remind themselves there is way too much cash sloshing about for a broad-based and lasting market retreat.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL


AI is a bubble; well, the stock market as a whole is, being led by an AI boom. At the end of a bubble (and it's not clear if we're there yet) markets find ways to self-finance. A crash means not just that the value is lower, but that the leveraged bets are now due, and those have to be paid by selling more.

When it crashes (and it's not clear when that will be), it will crash back to a cash-value baseline. And, sigh, it's not clear where that is. But it won't magically start going back up. The cyclic reinvestment engine needs to be reinvented every time.




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