The latest US GDP print is the Q3 2025 Initial Estimate, showing real GDP grew at a 4.3% annual rate

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/us-economy-grew-thi...

That is an annualised figure, which means they took the Q3 figure by itself and multiplied it by 4. US annualised growth in Q1 would've been -2%.

Between Q1/2/3, US growth has been about 1.6%.

Wait until the whole year figures come out.

And you have to wonder: if they do come out, are they truthful or are they fabricated.

Holiday spending was up 6.8% YoY and the highest spending on record. About 67% of GDP comes from consumer spending.

It's very unlikely the US doesn't have strong GDP numbers for 2025.

K-shaped economy and all that

They are likely referring to Q3/25 numbers [1].

The problem is the AI bubble, without it it is speculated that the US economy might actually be in a recession [2] - effectively, that web of investments, deals, ownerships, purchase contracts and god knows what is nothing more than wash trading that will come crashing down hard.

That is why for the 99%, the economy doesn't "feel" like 4.3% of growth. If you're not in AI directly or at least adjacent (e.g. datacenter or utility construction), you don't feel any of that money.

[1] https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/ai-infrastructure-boom-masks...