I find predication markets the most accurate form of 'news'. For example, if I want to understand if a claim (e.g. a news headline) has merit, I check the prediction market and easily dismiss/confirm it. Recently it has been useful to understand the situation in Iran. It has also informed my travel decisions to other countries based on geopolitical dangers.
Are prediction markets perfect? Of course not. But the difference is in prediction markets someone has something to lose (real money), whereas legacy news values sensationalism over accuracy and sobriety.
i don't know much about prediction markets aside from just a very high level view but i bumped into a thread on twitter that talks about how game-able they are as well if you have a decent chunk of money. e.g i throw 100k into "yes" and now bots/people think some insider has real info, and more shares get thrown into "yes" and then last minute the bot undoes the trade and throws a bunch of money into "no" and no resolves and they made a lot more money.
again, i don't know enough about prediction markets, but this feels like i can't really trust lower liquidity "predictions" (i guess very similar to penny stocks).
One can argue that main news headline predictions will have so much volume that it's impossible to rig it this way, but what's stopping state actors from manipulation?
It really will become about rich people swaying narratives or even making reality comport to their desires when practical. Poor people without insider info will just lose their savings on gambling. A cheaper stock market.
Are prediction markets perfect? Of course not. But the difference is in prediction markets someone has something to lose (real money), whereas legacy news values sensationalism over accuracy and sobriety.